Vitamin Market Overview – 2024 Trends & Early 2025 Outlook

Vitamin Market Overview – Q2

On March 12, a major European producer announced that it expects to restart vitamin E production by mid-May, six weeks earlier than originally communicated. However, a return to “business as usual” should not be expected before Q3 or even later, as replenishing global, regional, and local inventories will take several months. Currently, the vitamin E market remains balanced, and this producers’ return is not expected to disrupt this equilibrium. Their volumes will remain moderate and will not create an oversupply situation. However, given the high price levels of vitamin E, some downward pressure on prices could emerge in the second half of the year. Demand in China remains sluggish, leading traders to offload stock at lower prices in the Chinese and Southeast Asian markets. However, in light of U.S. tariffs, these small price drops could be easily offset for new imports. Producers and traders are expected to pass on these additional costs to customers, with some holding off on quotes while pre-tariff stock remains available.

The same explosion also disrupted vitamin A production, with output from the above-mentioned producer not expected to resume until April 2025. Buyers, wary of price fluctuations, are minimizing purchases in anticipation of an oversupplied market. Short shelf-life material may appear at discounted prices, and the potential entry of a new Chinese producer could add further downward pressure on prices later in the year.

Vitamin D3 prices continue to rise, driven by producers restricting volumes and supply constraints related to 7-dehydrocholesterol. Although temporary price drops occurred, they were short-lived. With production tightening post-Chinese New Year, prices are firming again, and the outlook remains bullish, with further increases likely.

In contrast, Vitamin K3 prices are declining due to intense competition among Chinese producers, prompting short-term purchasing. However, this dip may not last, as a non-Chinese producer recently halted production and chromium costs are rising. Buyers are cautious, watching for signs of a price rebound before making long-term commitments.

Chinese producers have extended shutdowns in an attempt to keep vitamin C prices elevated in 2025, but weak demand has led to price declines. Overcapacity continues to weigh on the market. A planned five-month shut down by a Chinese producer in mid-2025 may help stabilize prices, but its impact remains uncertain. For now, price relief seems unlikely before summer.

Vitamin B1 is in tight supply, causing steady price increases. Spot prices are firm, and with Q2 coverage still in progress, further increases are expected. End-users remain hesitant to commit to long-term contracts, hoping for better pricing, but tight stock levels and uncovered demand suggest prices could continue to strengthen as the quarter progresses.

The vitamin B2 market continues to show a significant price gap between EU and non-EU materials. New entrants are aggressively competing for market share, making it more difficult for traditional players to maintain profitability. In the EU, vitamin B2 prices remain firm, with a balanced supply-demand dynamic. Q2 is mostly covered in the EU, while buyers outside the EU are taking advantage of lower prices to secure longer-term positions.

Vitamin B3 pricing remains volatile. After firming late last year due to intermediate shortages, prices have softened again due to sluggish demand. Chinese suppliers have become more aggressive on pricing, with a leading producer driving a market-wide price drop. A recent fire led one producer to declare force majeure, though the overall market impact was minor. The entry of a new intermediate producer could further shake up the market. A rebound is still expected, as market fundamentals suggest a higher long-term pricing trend.

Vitamin B5 (Calpan) is trending downward after a prolonged period of stable, low prices. The market has been dominated by a few traditional players with the lowest operating costs, but a new competitor appears to be entering the space. The reasoning behind this move remains unclear.

Vitamin B6 prices continue to climb steadily, having nearly doubled over the past year due to limited availability from Chinese manufacturers. The market remains firm, with no signs of weakening. However, competition from new entrants expected in Q3 2025 could introduce some balance. While global supply is stable, market participants remain watchful for potential shifts later in the year.

Biotin prices remain at historic lows. Some traders have started accumulating stock, temporarily causing brief producer stockouts. However, with long-term coverage already secured for most buyers, there is little upward momentum. Production has ramped back up, keeping supply steady, and no major shifts are expected in the near term. The outlook remains bearish, with a new player announcing its entry into the biotin market, further adding to an already oversupplied market.

After months of record lows, folic acid (Vitamin B9) is seeing a turnaround. Tight availability and rising raw material costs have pushed prices higher. While supply remains sufficient, both traders and producers are hesitant to release inventory, anticipating another price jump. As Q2 approaches, the market remains on edge, with the potential for a second price increase.

Vitamin B12 remains relatively stable, particularly in Europe, where limited availability from a Chinese producer keeps prices firm. Outside of Europe, however, the market remains weak driven by overcapacity, leading to softened pricing in China over the past month.

Conclusion

While some vitamins face supply constraints and price increases, others are burdened by remaining inventories and disease outbreaks. Force majeure events, geopolitical shifts, and trade policies continue to influence market dynamics. As Q2 approaches, buyers remain cautious, balancing risk with strategic purchasing. The impact of upcoming tariffs, production slowdowns, and potential disease-related volatility could tip the scales. The next few months will be pivotal in determining the direction of the vitamin market in 2025, especially as the market navigates the challenges of overcapacity and shifting global demand. Meanwhile, dsm-firmenich is well-positioned in any challenging trade scenario, with the ability to supply key vitamins from various locations around the globe.