The vitamins market is experiencing a dynamic and shifting landscape. The prolonged destocking process has caught many producers off guard. With a perceived abundance of supply for many items and an increased focus on Operating Working Capital (OWC), customers are exercising caution in covering their demand.
Each vitamin product presents its own unique story within this intricate narrative. From supply chain disruptions to shifting consumer behaviors, regulatory changes, and economic conditions, these elements collectively influence the market’s behavior. In this landscape of uncertainties and opportunities, market participants must remain vigilant, adaptable, and responsive to the ever-evolving conditions that define the vitamins industry.
Vitamin A: Most producers are under maintenance shutdowns; prices bottomed and are now stable at the lower levels. Most producers are under maintenance shutdowns; prices bottomed and are now stable at the lower levels. Despite all producers operating at a loss, limited upward potential is foreseen in the near future, due to the return of BASF and a possible new entrant ahead.
Vitamin E: Uncertainty about supply in 2024 by a major producer and Chinese producers' shutdowns might promote first signs of price increases. NHU announced a price increase in China. However, customer’s hand to mouth buying behavior seem to dampen any effect. With shorth coverage, a slight change in the market could quickly shift things around.
Vitamin D3 500: North America witnesses lower prices due to oversupply and weak demand. Producer efforts to raise prices, including shutdowns, are hampered by market conditions. Q4 demand may rise, but prices are expected to remain stable at low levels.
Vitamin B1 (Thiamine): NHU announced a price increase in China. However, customer’s hand to mouth buying behavior seem to dampen any effect. Upcoming factory shutdowns are anticipated to have limited impact.
Vitamin B2 (Riboflavin): Several Chinese producers announced price increases and prices for prompt deliveries experienced a slight rise due to low stock. Limited demand may trigger price reduction.
Vitamin B3: Niacin prices in China have experienced a drop, while prices are stabilizing in North America. Raw material challenges persist until Q4, suppliers of b-picoline face challenges to supply material at low cost moving forward, prices could increase based on raw material availability. Most customers fully covered for Q3, contributing to price stabilization. Niacin's value is increasing due to its less hygroscopic nature compared to Amide.
Vitamin K3: Despite elevated raw material costs for K3 production (B3), prices decreased. With the ongoing weak demand, prices will remain low.
Vitamin B5 (Calpan): Chinese producers counter price erosion with output restrictions and price increase announcements, yielding limited impact given available lower offers in the market. Anticipated maintenance shutdowns could help stabilize prices. Buyers covering short, if demand increased, price trend could reverse quickly.
Vitamin B6: dsm-firmenich's B6 Xinghuo plant closure has modest market repercussions, with slight China price hikes and minimal bookings due to available stock. While China experiences B6 price increases post-plant closure, North America witnessed a slight price increase due to local availability challenges.
Biotin: Biotin prices declined due to lack of demand and are stable at historical lows. A minor Q4 increase is possible, if there is substantial demand towards the end of the year. China experiences price erosion, believed to be nearing the bottom, other markets around the world follow the same dynamics.
Vitamin B9 (Folic Acid): Folic Acid faces limited demand and availability, with potential for a turnaround due to struggling producers. Prices seems to have stabilized around current levels.
Vitamin B12: Weak prices are a result from hand to mouth buyers’ behavior. Despite regulatory changes, China and Europe maintain stable, low prices. EU regulatory changes may prompt volatility, while non-EU markets might follow Chinese dynamics.
In essence, the vitamins market is a complex web of factors that shape the trajectory of each product. From supply chain disruptions to shifting consumer behaviors, regulatory changes, and economic conditions, these elements collectively influence the market's dynamics. In this landscape of uncertainties and opportunities, market participants must remain vigilant, adaptable, and responsive to the ever-evolving conditions that define the Animal Nutrition industry.
