A late-July explosion at a major European vitamin producer led to a Force Majeure, impacting the Vitamin E market. Production is now set to resume by mid-May, six weeks earlier than initially expected. The market remains balanced, and their return is unlikely to cause oversupply. However, high prices may face some downward pressure in the second half of the year. In China, weak demand has pushed traders to sell at lower prices in Chinese and Southeast Asian markets. Yet, U.S. tariffs could offset these declines, as producers and traders are expected to pass on the added costs to customers.
The same explosion also disrupted vitamin A production, with output from the above-mentioned producer not expected to resume until April 2025. Buyers, wary of fluctuating prices, are keeping purchases to a minimum, sensing an oversupplied market. Short shelf-life material could surface at discounted prices, and a potential new Chinese entrant could add downward pressure on prices later during the year. However, looming tariffs on U.S. imports may prevent a price collapse.
Vitamin D3 continues to face volatility, with supply constraints from 7-dehydrocholesterol shortages keeping prices high. Although lower prices briefly emerged, they were short-lived, and with production tightening post-Chinese New Year, prices are firming again.
In contrast, Vitamin K3 prices are moving downward driven by intense competition among Chinese producers, prompting short-term purchasing. However, this dip may not last: a non-Chinese producer recently halted production, chromium costs are rising, and upcoming tariffs could push prices up. Buyers are cautious, watching for any signs of price recovery before committing long-term.
Chinese producers have extended shutdowns in an attempt to keep Vitamin C prices elevated in 2025, but weak demand has led to price declines. Overcapacity continues to burden the market, and while a planned five-month shutdown in mid-2025 by a Chinese producer may help stabilize things, its impact remains uncertain. For now, price relief seems unlikely before summer.
Vitamin B1, however, is in tight supply, causing prices to rise steadily. Spot prices are firm, and with Q2 coverage still in progress, further increases are expected. End-users remain hesitant to commit long-term, hoping for better pricing. However, tight stock levels and uncovered demand suggest that prices could continue to strengthen as the quarter progresses.
Meanwhile, vitamin B2 appears stable, benefiting from improved supply as a major producer catches up. Pricing in the EU holds firm, but in other regions, weak demand keeps pressure on prices. Newer players are aggressively competing with low prices, creating a significant price gap with traditional producers. Buyers outside the EU are taking advantage of lower prices to secure longer-term positions.
Vitamin B3 pricing remains volatile. After firming late last year driven by intermediate shortages, prices have softened again amid sluggish buying. Chinese players have become more aggressive on price, with a leading Chinese producer driving a market-wide price drop. A recent fire led one producer to declare Force Majeure, but this had minor impact. The entry of an intermediate producer could shake up the market further. A rebound is still expected, as market fundamentals suggest a higher long-term pricing trend.
Vitamin B5 remains in a holding pattern, with prices stable but low. Some Chinese offers have inched up slightly, reflecting higher freight costs, but overall, oversupply limits any significant movement. Traditional producers maintain their market share, while lower-cost entrants struggle to stay competitive.
Vitamin B6 continues to climb steadily, with prices nearly doubling over the past year driven to Chinese manufacturers. The firm market shows no signs of weakening, though competition from new entrants in Q3 2025 could introduce some balance. North American supply remains stable, but the market remains on watch for any shifts later in the year.
Biotin prices remain at historic lows. Some traders have started accumulating stock, temporarily causing brief producer stockouts. However, with long-term coverage already secured for most buyers, there is little upward momentum. Production has ramped back up, keeping supply steady, and no major shifts are expected in the near term. The outlook remains bearish, with a new player announcing its entry into the biotin market, further adding to an already oversupplied market.
After months of record lows, folic acid (Vitamin B9) is seeing a turnaround. Tight availability and rising raw material costs have pushed prices higher. While supply remains sufficient, both traders and producers are hesitant to release inventory, anticipating another price jump. As Q2 approaches, the market remains on edge, with the potential for a second price increase.
Vitamin B12 remains relatively stable, particularly in Europe, where limited availability from a Chinese producer keeps prices firm. Outside of Europe, however, the market remains weak driven by overcapacity, leading to softened pricing in China over the past month.
While some vitamins face supply constraints and price increases, others are burdened by remaining inventories and disease outbreaks. Force majeure events, geopolitical shifts, and trade policies continue to influence market dynamics. As Q2 approaches, buyers remain cautious, balancing risk with strategic purchasing. The impact of upcoming tariffs, production slowdowns, and potential disease-related volatility could tip the scales. The next few months will be pivotal in determining the direction of the vitamin market in 2025, especially as the market navigates the challenges of overcapacity and shifting global demand. Meanwhile, dsm-firmenich is well-positioned in any challenging trade scenario, with the ability to supply key vitamins from various locations around the globe.
